Bitcoin has reclaimed a significant technical level, closing above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks as the cryptocurrency climbed back above $81,000 on September 21, 2026.
The 50-week moving average has historically served as a resistance ceiling during bear markets. According to Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn, regaining this level has historically confirmed that bear market lows are established.
Thorn's historical analysis of four of five completed bear markets that lost the 50-week average found that the first weekly close back above it was followed by no lower low in most cases. The 2021-2022 downturn was an exception, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the average twice before falling further.
However, market watcher Joe Consorti offered a more optimistic interpretation, noting that historically, a close above the average has carried a 75% chance of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% if the Covid crash is excluded.
Bitcoin's current price stands above $81,000, representing a 1% gain over 24 hours and nearly 5% over seven days. The cryptocurrency remains nearly 30% lower over the past year and 35% below its October 2025 all-time high.
The rebound followed a volatile week, with Bitcoin briefly declining toward $75,000 after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. The price subsequently recovered despite a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike to 3.75%-4% and a Bank of Japan rate increase to 1.25%, marking a 31-year high for Japan. Bitcoin's advance encountered resistance near the $82,000 area over the weekend.
