Bitcoin has rapidly recovered the relative ground it lost to the S&P 500 over the preceding three months, during which the cryptocurrency underperformed U.S. large-cap stocks. A sharp market rally closed the performance gap in a matter of days.
Data from Glassnode indicates that the BTC-to-S&P 500 relative-performance ratio dropped from approximately 3x to nearly 2.2x over the three-month period. However, a strong rally over four trading sessions pushed the ratio back up to about 2.82x. While the S&P 500 remained up roughly 20% from a September starting point, Bitcoin demonstrated its capacity to quickly make up lost ground.
The rebound coincided with Bitcoin's price jumping from $62,000 to approximately $78,000 over a few days. According to SoSo Value data, several catalysts contributed to Bitcoin outpacing the S&P 500, including the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market recording $1.92 billion in inflows over the preceding week, anticipation surrounding U.S. crypto legislation, and U.S. Treasury actions that helped alleviate bond-market stress.
Despite the swift recovery, analysts note that the rally does not guarantee a permanent end to Bitcoin's underperformance or confirm a lasting bull market. Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering overbought territory. Historical patterns indicate that moves into overbought or oversold zones frequently precede pullbacks.
Amid these market dynamics, data from The Kobeissi Letter noted that the implied probability of Bitcoin finishing 2026 above $90,000 increased from 12% to 48% over a three-day span. This shift occurred alongside $3.5 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency liquidations between August 20 and August 21.
Additional market analysis indicates that Bitcoin's rebound has reinforced its bullish structure, identifying strong support between $61,849 and $63,111 alongside limited overhead supply above $75,733. A sustained break above that threshold could open a path toward the $83,307 to $84,569 range, where another significant supply cluster is located.
