Bitcoin has triggered a market signal that analysts interpret as confirmation of a new bull market, marking the fifth occurrence of this indicator in the cryptocurrency's history.
Darkfost, a Cryptoquant contributor, shared the analysis on September 24, noting the signal aligns with an earlier July indicator suggesting the bear market was ending. "This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic bitcoin is putting in place, though there's always a margin for error," Darkfost wrote.
How the Signal Works
The measure examines cost basis—an estimate of the average price at which holders purchased their coins. It compares two groups: short-term holders and active long-term holders. A bullish signal occurs when the short-term group's cost basis rises above that of the long-term group.
According to Cryptoquant data, this crossover previously occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The latest reading represents the fifth in the series.
The analysis only includes long-term coins that have moved at least once in the past seven years. Darkfost acknowledged this seven-year cutoff is arbitrary. More than 3.5 million bitcoin older than 10 years remain untouched, with approximately 8,000 to 30,000 bitcoin added monthly to that dormant supply.
ETF Inflows During the Signal
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs received $2.06 billion in net inflows from September 21 to 23, 2026. Daily inflows showed a declining trend: $999 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22, and $346.9 million on September 23. While these inflows coincided with the signal, the data does not establish causation.
Market Outlook
Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju offered a separate perspective on September 22, suggesting that larger market size and increased institutional ownership could reduce the extreme rallies and crashes characteristic of previous cycles. He forecast three to five times returns for bitcoin during this cycle, followed by a milder bear market.
