Bitcoin could follow gold into a substantially larger market as institutional ownership expands through exchange-traded funds, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Hougan compared bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market value when spot bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 to gold's estimated $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion valuation when the first U.S. gold ETF launched in 2004. Gold has since grown to approximately $30 trillion, he noted.
ETF Access and Supply Dynamics
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot bitcoin investment products on January 10, 2024, allowing investors to gain direct bitcoin price exposure through regular brokerage accounts without managing cryptocurrency wallets or private keys. This structure lets shareholders hold shares tracking the underlying asset through stock exchanges.
Hougan's analysis builds on the argument that sustained ETF buying could gradually tighten bitcoin's available supply. He noted that existing holders' sales initially absorb demand, but continued buying could eventually exhaust willing sellers.
Bitwise data through August 31 showed bitcoin and gold's rolling 90-day correlation above 0.5, the highest level since 2020, indicating their price changes tend to move in the same direction.
Investor Behavior as Primary Risk
Hougan identified investors' ability to endure market volatility as his biggest concern for long-term bitcoin growth, placing it ahead of threats to bitcoin's operating rules or security from quantum computers. He noted that excessive leverage and exhaustion from market swings have already harmed market participants, as leverage amplifies both losses and gains and can force positions to close during declines.
A Bitwise survey of 15 large institutions published in September found that none named price as a reason to exit crypto positions, though respondents classified bitcoin differently—some as a store of value and others as a technology investment. Hougan suggested maintaining capital invested over a 10-year horizon to assess how the thesis develops.
