Bitcoin (BTC) has reached its 20-week moving average, bringing price action directly into the bull market support band after testing levels near $73.5K, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen in a recent YouTube video.
Key Technical Findings
Cowen noted that Bitcoin dropped to $73.5K, tagging the 20-week moving average. This follows a pattern seen across other major assets like the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Ethereum, and market cap metrics like Total 2 and Total 3, which had already reached their respective support bands.
He described a stair-stepping price action: historically, Bitcoin initially tags the 21-week EMA, experiences a brief bounce, and then falls toward the 20-week SMA. Cowen further noted that the current structure resembles a downward-headed stair-step pattern on notable market panic, bouncing back on re-buys, and then continuing downwards. In other words, it’s making a lower-high and lower-low price structure.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin closed back below its 50-week moving average. Unlike historical breakout rallies in 2019 and 2023 that surged immediately after clearing this level, the recent attempt failed to gain momentum beyond 10% before reversing.
Macro Outlook and Historical Cycles
Cowen pointed to historical tendencies for the fourth quarter of midterm election years to bring a window of macro weakness across equity and crypto markets, often leading to a larger capitulation event.
The drop in Bitcoin aligns with ongoing corrections in traditional markets like the NASDAQ. Cowen warns that periods where Bitcoin appears to hold up well during stock market pullbacks often precede a subsequent leg down.
Market liquidity is also facing pressure as investors sell liquid crypto assets to reallocate capital into high-profile private offerings such as Anthropic and SpaceX, Cowen said.
Looking Ahead to the Rest of Q4
Cowen maintains a cyclic base case of key lows occurring in February, summer, and late Q4. Historical patterns following the first interest rate hike of a cycle suggest potential market bottoms around day 94, pointing toward mid-December, a timeline that closely coincides with upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision meetings.
Until macro conditions stabilize, Cowen expects Bitcoin to potentially break below the bull market support band as the market continues its search for a definitive Q4 low.
