US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw a significant outflow of $635.49 million on October 22, according to data from SoSoValue. The withdrawal marked the largest single-day exit since June 25 and reversed gains from the previous day, when the same funds took in $528.40 million.
The outflow ended a three-day period of inflows totaling approximately $1.08 billion. That rally began on October 19 with $526.6 million in inflows, the funds' largest daily intake since September 22. Year-to-date October flows now stand at roughly $174.5 million in net withdrawals.
The 7% Threshold
Research from DWF Labs, a crypto market maker, identified a price level where ETF investor behavior typically shifts. The firm studied spot Bitcoin ETF flows since January 2024 and found that selling accelerates once Bitcoin closes 7% below its 20-day high.
When this threshold is breached, average daily flows swing from approximately $74 million in inflows to $72 million in outflows. In 19 of 24 cases DWF examined, flows worsened after crossing the 7% level.
On October 22, Bitcoin closed at $81,416.09, roughly 5.9% below the October 4 high of $86,530, placing the 7% trigger near $80,470. This meant the outflow occurred before Bitcoin reached the historically significant selling level.
Price Movement and Flow Patterns
Bitcoin declined 3.41% over 24 hours to $81,297, tracking the broader pattern DWF observed. The price had climbed from $82,245.93 on October 15 to $84,093.42 on October 21, before stalling near $85,000 and then retreating.
DWF's research also noted that ETF flows tend to follow price movements. Money arrived as Bitcoin rallied into October 21, then left when prices fell—a pattern consistent with October's overall flow dynamics.
Looking Ahead
The 7% threshold is set to shift once October 4's high drops out of the 20-day calculation window. The next reference point would be October 5's close of $85,766.87, which would lower the trigger to approximately $79,760, unless Bitcoin closes above that level first.
Historical data from DWF suggests selling pressure may ease after Bitcoin breaks below the 7% threshold. Past instances showed flows hovering near zero the following week and turning positive within two weeks.
DWF noted its analysis shows a clear pattern but cautioned it does not constitute statistical proof. Coming price closes will determine whether ETF outflows intensify if Bitcoin falls below the key level.
