Spot Bitcoin ETFs may overtake mutual funds in total assets under management (AUM) within the next two to three years, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. In a recent post, Seyffart said, “Their growth is only accelerating. If we stay on the same trend we’ve been on since the summer it will happen in ~two years.”
ETF share of total fund assets
Using a chart, Seyffart highlighted that ETFs accounted for 40.21% of total fund assets as of September 2026. If the three-month growth rate continues, ETFs could reach the 50% mark as early as September 2028. Other projections place the milestone between November 2028 and December 2029, depending on the period considered.
The rolling 12-month growth rate for ETFs reached 3.74% in September 2026, above the historical average of 2.78% since the 2020 COVID market bottom, indicating that ETF adoption is expanding faster than its long-term average.
Bitcoin ETF impact versus corporate buying
Separate analysis by Ecoinometrics suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs have a significantly stronger influence on Bitcoin price returns than corporate Bitcoin accumulation. An inflow of 10,000 BTC into spot Bitcoin ETFs corresponds to an estimated 3.2% boost in monthly Bitcoin returns, while the same amount purchased by public companies contributes approximately 0.7% to monthly returns. This implies ETF purchases have roughly 4.5 times the impact of corporate buying on Bitcoin’s price performance.
Recent outflow streak
Despite the longer-term growth trend, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a streak of outflows. According to Farside Investors data, from November 1 to November 5, 2026, Bitcoin ETFs recorded mostly outflows, totaling $869.82 million so far in November. The only exception was November 4, when BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $74.6 million.
The outflows occurred as the price of BTC traded at $76,102.46, after a drop of 52% in the past 24 hours.
Other crypto ETFs also recorded outflows during the period: Ethereum ETFs saw $272.09 in outflows, Binance (BNB) ETFs recorded $271.01K in outflows, XRP ETFs had $529.51K in outflows, Solana (SOL) ETFs saw $1.18M in outflows, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETFs recorded $7.66 million in outflows, according to SoSoValue.
The pattern suggests risk-off sentiment across crypto at the start of November, and not just in Bitcoin. It remains to be seen whether Seyffart’s prediction will materialize.
