Bitcoin spot ETFs shed $773.5 million in outflows on October 22nd and 23rd, during which Bitcoin declined 3.45% on price charts and continued posting losses heading into the weekend.
Whale Accumulation Signals Shift
Despite the ETF outflows, whale holdings metrics moved in the opposite direction. The Bitcoin one-year change in whale holdings indicator approached positive territory, with whale holdings climbing from negative 282,000 BTC to negative 39,000 BTC in less than three months. This represents approximately 243,000 BTC purchased by whales during the period, according to analyst observations.
The selling pressure from whale distribution has been declining since July.
Market Valuation Metrics Suggest Early Accumulation
The MVRV Percentile metric, which normalizes market valuation data on a scale from 0% to 100%, stood at 25% in late October. This followed a low of 0% on July 1st when Bitcoin traded at $59,300, and a recovery to 32% by late September. Extremely low values reflect undervaluation while high values indicate market euphoria. Based on these readings, the market remained in an early to mid-accumulation phase.
The three-day timeframe price chart also displayed a bullish structure, supporting a longer-term bullish view.
Exchange Outflows and Futures Positioning
Since September 22nd, the 30-day exchange flow has been positive, with more Bitcoin leaving exchanges than entering. This shrinking of readily available supply on exchanges is generally considered a buying signal.
In the futures market, the 30-day positioning index rose to positive 0.3, up from negative 0.5 a week earlier. The reading remained close to zero, indicating buyers and sellers maintained equilibrium with neither side holding an advantage. Analysts noted that a shift toward net exchange inflows combined with negative positioning index scores would signal stronger bearish pressure.
