Bitcoin trades near $76,808, down 0.2% over 24 hours, leaving the cryptocurrency approximately $4,900 away from a milestone that analysts use to signal the start of a new bull market. CryptoQuant defines that threshold as $81,700, the average closing price of the past year.
Despite retail traders showing bullish sentiment, with the Fear and Greed Index at 66 and a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.12, the price has approached but not broken through this level this month. A negative Coinbase Premium indicates that American institutional investors have not participated in the move, with Bitcoin trading more cheaply on US exchanges than offshore venues.
Whale and Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure
Large Bitcoin holders have been actively selling during the recent two-week rally. CryptoQuant's Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.93, flagged as an alert level that tracks how much coin arriving at exchanges comes from the largest wallets. This metric captured a moment in time rather than a broader trend.
Long-term holders—wallets that accumulated coins over months—have also released substantial amounts into a supply band between $77,100 and $80,200. Approximately 539,000 BTC were sold within this zone over the course of 2026, according to CryptoQuant data. Analysts note this level represents historical profit-taking pressure.
Obstacles to Bull Market Confirmation
Technical resistance remains firmly in place. Beyond the $77,100 to $80,200 zone, additional ceilings exist at $83,600 and $88,700. Should the price decline, support levels sit at $70,000 and between $62,000 and $65,000, where holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC this year.
CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain noted that with price momentum already exhausted and market sentiment in what the analyst described as absolute noise, conditions favor a long squeeze—a mechanism that forces leveraged traders betting on gains to sell, potentially pushing prices lower.
The central challenge remains unclear: Bitcoin would need to break through resistance amid selling pressure from both whales and long-term holders, with US institutional capital notably absent from the move.
