Bitcoin could experience a decline toward long-term support levels ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections if historical patterns highlighted by analysts play out. The cryptocurrency recently staged a strong recovery, climbing above the $80,000 level before trading at $78,379, representing a 21% increase over the week and remaining well above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
According to a TradingShot analysis shared on TradingView, Bitcoin declined during the three months leading up to the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022. During those periods, the digital asset ultimately bottomed near or below its weekly 200-week moving average.
The analysis indicates that Bitcoin was recently rejected at its weekly 50-week moving average, a threshold that has historically capped bear-market recoveries. Ahead of the 2014 and 2018 elections, BTC bottomed near its weekly 200-week moving average, while the 2022 cycle saw the asset drop even further to the weekly 350-week moving average.
Despite the potential downside pointed out by the election-cycle analysis, the analyst noted that Bitcoin's four-year cycle model could limit the correction, as the asset approaches a phase typically associated with the beginning of a new bull market. Confirming a new bull market historically requires Bitcoin to reclaim its weekly 50-week moving average.
Observers also caution that because Bitcoin has only experienced a limited number of U.S. midterm election cycles, the sample size remains small. Broader market catalysts, including Federal Reserve policy, institutional demand, and exchange-traded fund flows, are expected to continue influencing price action alongside historical election trends.
