Bitcoin dropped below $81,000 on October 22, joining a broader market selloff that saw the Nasdaq decline more than 2%, spot gold fall about 2.7% to $4,025, and silver sink about 5.8% to near $54.63. The moves marked an unusual convergence, with four typically uncorrelated assets declining together while Treasury bonds rallied.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.146% to below 5%, marking its largest single-day decline in more than two years. This bond rally occurred despite inflation remaining elevated, suggesting renewed safe-haven demand for government securities.
Competition for Capital
The World Gold Council flagged the potential for Treasuries to compete with gold for investor capital as yields fell. The simultaneous decline in both precious metals and Bitcoin alongside the bond rally points to a scenario where funding pressures are driving investors away from riskier assets and toward bonds.
Brent crude oil traded higher, reaching an intraday high of $114.70 during the session, adding inflation concerns to the market backdrop. Despite the complexity of price movements, the evidence suggests Treasury buying coincided with selling pressure across risk assets.
Technical Levels and Forward Indicators
According to Glassnode analysis, the average acquisition cost of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs sits near $81,500, with replenished bids near $80,000. The True Market Mean lies near $77,600, with overhead supply between $85,000 and $87,500 where older holder cost bases overlap.
Near-term market direction may depend on upcoming economic data. S&P Global's manufacturing and services PMIs and the University of Michigan inflation survey are expected to clarify whether bonds are responding to growth fears or other factors. The Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting follows these readings.
If Treasury yields stabilize and oil prices retreat, it would suggest defensive demand is easing and Bitcoin could hold its cost-basis zone. Conversely, weaker economic data paired with persistent inflation expectations could pressure prices further below key technical levels.
