Bitcoin is experiencing its second consecutive losing October, down 4.10% since the month began. Yet research from Galaxy and other major firms identifies four signals that still support a bullish outlook across price structure, positioning data, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic conditions.
Technical Support Holds Above Key Average
Galaxy's research head Alex Thorn views Bitcoin's 50-week moving average as the market's ceiling and the 200-week average as its bear-market floor. After trading below the 50-week average for 44 weeks, Bitcoin reclaimed that level in September. At $79,935, BTC currently trades approximately 5% above the current 50-week average of $75,812.
Galaxy examined four previous instances when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week average after at least 20 weeks below it. In each case, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level during the following year.
Institutional Pullback Signals Positioning Shift
Asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin's all-time high. Nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced their reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026.
In contrast, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, suggesting retail accumulation during the decline.
On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals
Glassnode reports that approximately 70% of short-term holder supply sits in profit, down from nearly all of late September. This cooling reflects changed market conditions for recent buyers.
Santiment notes that Bitcoin lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, which the firm interprets as a possible bottom signal. Santiment stated that retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than sudden floods of new buyers chasing rallies.
Macroeconomic Context Supports Long-Term Case
US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, with fiscal 2026 closing at a $1.99 trillion deficit. Galaxy argues that refinancing such debt at interest rates near 5% could pressure policymakers to tolerate inflation, strengthening the case for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin. However, this dynamic plays out over years and offers limited guidance for near-term price movement.
November History Offers Mixed Precedent
Bitcoin's November record presents a counterweight to bullish signals. November has closed higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%. However, November rose in only 2 of the 5 years following a red October. In 2025, a 3.95% October loss preceded a 17.49% November decline.
Santiment says a sustained break below $79,000 would delay its bottom signal, while a reclaim near $82,500 would strengthen it. The October close, with days remaining in the month, will indicate which side of that range Bitcoin maintains.
