Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are entering another potentially volatile week, with US midterm elections, crucial labor-market data, major tech earnings and several Federal Reserve speakers on deck.
The leading cryptocurrency tanked to $76,000 at the end of last week after the industry's largest hack, then tried to stabilize at $77,000-$78,000 over the weekend.
Midterms and jobs data
Politics could be among the most volatile layers, starting Tuesday with the US midterm elections, where control of Congress could change hands. Reuters reported that Democrats are widely expected to win the House, while the Senate remains more uncertain. Any result that meaningfully shifts expectations about government spending, fiscal policy, regulation or future debt-ceiling negotiations could spill over into broader markets and crypto.
September JOLTS job openings will also arrive Tuesday, followed by the ADP private payrolls report Wednesday. October ISM manufacturing data is due Monday, while the more closely watched services PMI follows Wednesday. However, these are unlikely to lead to major turbulence in crypto markets on their own.
Another major report that has historically led to short-term volatility comes Friday, when October jobs data is released. Economists currently expect payroll growth of roughly 62,000 jobs, following September's much weaker 29,000 increase. The unemployment rate is projected to remain around 4.2%.
A stronger reading could reinforce the case for another Fed rate hike in December, potentially lifting Treasury yields and the dollar while putting renewed pressure on BTC and other risk assets. The opposite scenario could be a relief.
Big Tech and the Fed
Roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week, according to the Kobeissi Letter. Apple and Palantir report Monday, while AMD and Super Micro Computer follow Tuesday. Markets will be paying close attention after October's steep technology-sector sell-off. Weaker results from large AI-related names could pressure the Nasdaq again, potentially dragging crypto lower alongside other risk assets.
Five Fed officials will speak this week, with their comments closely scrutinized after the central bank held rates steady at the end of October. Current expectations suggest the Fed is likely to hike rates again in December.
Bitcoin begins November from a fragile position, having fallen by over 7% in October and breaking its three-month green streak. The Binance hack continues to weigh on overall market sentiment.
