Bitcoin (BTC) declined roughly 7% during October, ending the so‑called “Uptober” trend of seasonal gains. The cryptocurrency fell about 4% late on Thursday, shortly before a broader sell‑off in the Nasdaq on Friday.
AI stocks pull market sentiment
Senior portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock linked the shift to a pullback in AI‑related equities, noting that the “Magnificent Seven” – the largest U.S. companies tied to artificial intelligence – retreated throughout the month. Rosenberg told CNBC that market participants now view AI weakness as a signal of slower U.S. growth, which helped push Treasury yields lower even as oil prices rose.
Oil and bond markets decouple
Oil futures increased while Treasury yields slipped, breaking an 80% correlation observed earlier in the year. Rosenberg said the divergence reflects the market’s focus on AI risk over geopolitical concerns.
Fed commentary and broader market moves
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said capital spending is expanding beyond narrow sectors and highlighted rising oil prices as a factor in the Fed’s inflation strategy. Rate‑future markets had signaled a possible December rate hike by mid‑October.
Google experienced its largest one‑day market value loss on record last week, erasing about $500 billion.
Historical context for Bitcoin in October
Data shows Bitcoin has risen in 10 of the last 13 Octobers through 2025, with a median gain near 15%. However, October 2025 also ended lower, making the 2026 decline the second consecutive red October. Bitcoin is currently trading below $80,000, according to CoinGecko.
Bond market outlook
Microsoft re‑entered the public bond market after nearly a decade, with credit default swap spreads near 55, while Oracle’s spreads sit around 300. Rosenberg estimates the bond market could absorb about $4 trillion of AI‑related debt over four years, which would affect pricing and spreads.
