Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $75,000 on September 15, as the Senate voted 49-50 on a motion to proceed with the CLARITY Act, falling short of the 60 votes required for cloture. The failed vote extended a selloff already underway, with the cryptocurrency breaking below the prior support area of $76,300-$76,600.
Crypto companies tied to U.S. regulation faced sharper losses. Coinbase fell approximately 10%, while Circle declined more than 11%. Broader market conditions also weighed on risk assets, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.041%, its highest level since 2007, and Brent crude trading above $105.
Prediction markets reflected the shifting political landscape. Polymarket odds for CLARITY passage fell from 31% to 19% before the vote, suggesting investors had already begun repricing the likelihood of failure. Bitcoin had slipped below $77,000 during this repricing period.
Key Technical Levels Ahead of Fed Decision
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's 200-day moving average sits around $70,000. A decline to that level from the $75,900 intraday low would represent approximately a 7.8% drop. Deeper support exists between $62,000 and $65,000, where CryptoQuant indicates long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC during the year.
The September 16 Federal Reserve meeting will provide the next major catalyst. A Reuters poll found that 85% of economists expect a 25-basis-point rate increase to 3.75%-4.00%, broadly aligned with current market pricing.
Bull Case Scenario
If the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point hike with restrained guidance, Bitcoin could stabilize between approximately $72,000 and $76,000. A move to $72,000 would represent a 5.1% extension of the September 15 decline but would keep the cryptocurrency above its 200-day moving average. A reclaim of $76,000 could bring the $77,100-$80,200 area back into focus, though CryptoQuant notes long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC in that zone during the first 30 days of the year, potentially creating supply resistance.
Bear Case Scenario
A more aggressive Fed path beyond September, as some economists now anticipate, could push Bitcoin toward $70,000 with the 200-day moving average directly in play. A sustained move below that level would place this widely watched reference above the market price. Further weakness could extend toward the $62,000-$65,000 zone, a test that would place significant pressure on the August rebound.
Bitcoin's recovery from that deeper zone would depend on whether long-term holders who accumulated there earlier in the year defend the region.
