Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, with analyst Benjamin Cowen saying two of nine steps in his bearish 2026 roadmap have now been completed.
The checked steps are a weekly close below $83,000 and a fakeout on Oct. 25, meaning a breakout that reversed. Cowen updated the checklist on X on Monday. The next two steps depend on scheduled events this week rather than price action.
Macro events ahead
Cowen’s path assumes the Federal Open Market Committee does not raise rates at its Oct. 28 decision. The Fed publishes the decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, according to its calendar.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis then publishes the September Personal Consumption Expenditures price index on Oct. 29. Cowen’s roadmap calls for a hot reading from that inflation gauge.
Oil’s latest surge is already close to the level in the roadmap. Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, while Cowen’s path calls for roughly $120 over the Iran war.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.10% on Oct. 15, according to the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database. Cowen’s path calls for a return to 5.3%.
Remaining sequence and invalidation
Falling stocks, a fourth-quarter slide in Bitcoin and lower long-dated yields before year-end complete the sequence. Cowen cites a recurring drop in the final quarter of US midterm election years.
Cowen says the roadmap becomes void if Bitcoin regains $83,000 and holds it. In his updated post, he wrote: “I will follow this view until proven wrong (back above $83k).”
Bitcoin also slipped under $80,000 on Saturday, when about $191 million in long positions were liquidated. With the Fed and PCE steps still ahead, those events could show whether Bitcoin’s price action follows rates and oil rather than crypto-specific demand.
