Bitcoin slid below $81,000 on October 8, with an intraday low near $80,800, even as market participants anticipated a pause in Fed rate increases for the month.
The September Federal Open Market Committee minutes, released October 7, indicated that most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable, with decisions dependent on incoming economic data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's October 8 remarks highlighted the longer-term rate path, noting that futures pricing as of October 7 assigned an 85% probability to at least one hike by December.
Macro Headwinds Persist Despite Rate Pause
A Fed pause in October moves the next potential rate increase later on the calendar, but does not eliminate longer-term tightening expectations. Market pricing showed nearly 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% probability of three or more.
Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year yield at 5.305% and the 2-year at 4.821% on October 8. Elevated yields keep the cost of capital high for risk assets, potentially constraining crypto market strength regardless of near-term Fed action. Brent crude oil traded at $104.87, maintaining inflation pressures.
Thin Buying Support Exposed Vulnerability
According to Glassnode's October 7 analysis, combined spot-exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volume reached approximately $6.8 billion daily, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new capital from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while the realized capitalization rose $12.8 billion over 30 days—less than 40% of the total move.
This pattern suggested that the prior price movement relied heavily on existing capital repricing rather than fresh inflows, leaving limited buying depth to absorb selling pressure.
Liquidations Accelerated the Decline
Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred in the 24 hours preceding the price slide, with $930 million tied to long positions. Glassnode had flagged a modeled cluster of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300, along with large bids around $81,000 to $81,250 on Binance. The price decline through these zones amplified selling via cascading liquidations.
Upside resistance sits at $85,500, above which a sell-order concentration exists between $86,500 and $86,750. Glassnode identified the largest one-year cluster of liquidations above the current price from $87,100 to $95,900, with the heaviest concentration near $92,000. Downside support appears near $75,000 based on modeled liquidation clusters.
Near-Term Tests Ahead
Key economic events will test Bitcoin's ability to hold price structure: the September Consumer Price Index on October 14, the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, and the December 8–9 meeting. Bitcoin must maintain its technical support through these events on a relatively shallow base of new buyers.
