Bitcoin traded below $84,000 on October 7 as US Treasury yields approached 5.3%, offering investors an interest-bearing alternative to cryptocurrency exposure. The ten-year nominal yield stood at 5.27% on October 6, while the real yield reached 2.91%—both among the highest daily observations recorded since January 2017.
Higher Treasury yields typically increase the return investors expect to justify speculative positions like Bitcoin. However, historical data reveals a more complex relationship. An analysis of 2,435 matched daily changes since January 2017 found weak linear correlations between Bitcoin returns and both nominal and real Treasury yield changes. These weak relationships persisted in the period following the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin's recent performance underscores this disconnect. From January 10, 2024—the day before spot Bitcoin ETF trading began—through October 5, Bitcoin gained 84.2%. Over the same period, the ten-year nominal yield rose 127 basis points and the real yield increased 113 basis points. This demonstrates that rising yields and Bitcoin price appreciation can occur simultaneously, though it does not establish a causal link.
The relationship between Bitcoin and yields varies by time scale. Daily correlations between Bitcoin returns and yield changes were negligible both before and after the introduction of spot ETFs. Monthly analysis from February 2017 through September 2026 showed slightly stronger relationships, with correlations of -0.081 for nominal yield changes and -0.228 for real yield changes. In the post-ETF period spanning February 2024 through September 2026, monthly correlations reversed to positive territory, though with only 32 observations these shifts remain inconclusive.
Current Treasury yield levels present investors with elevated competition for capital. Yet correlations between asset returns do not establish causation or predict future price movements. The measured relationship between Bitcoin and yield changes remains a separate question from Bitcoin's current investment hurdle.
