Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, reaching day 900 since the April 2024 halving event. The network currently trades near $83,100, approximately 34% below its October 2025 peak and 44% above its July low.
Where the Halving Cycle Stands
The Bitcoin network sits at block 970,344, with the fifth halving scheduled to trigger at block 1,050,000. At the current average pace of one block every 10 minutes, this event is projected for April 2028. The halving will reduce the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
Historical Pattern Suggests Market Bottom May Be Near
Analyst The Rational Root compared the 62% mark across all four previous halving cycles. In the first cycle, this point arrived in early 2015, coinciding with a bear market low in January. In the third cycle, the 62% mark landed in late 2022, followed by a bottom near $15,500 in November 2022.
Trader Jesse Olson analyzed price action across all post-halving periods and found a consistent pattern: every market top formed prior to day 550, and every bottom formed near or before day 900. In the current cycle, Bitcoin set a record above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, around day 534, fitting the historical pattern. Bitcoin has since broken above the downtrend line drawn from that peak.
Exceptions and Risks Complicate the Picture
The pattern has notable exceptions. In 2018, the 62% mark arrived with Bitcoin near $6,000, but price subsequently slid to approximately $3,200 by mid-December, cutting its value nearly in half.
Olson's analysis shows that after breaking their downtrend lines, two of three past cycles pulled back to retest them. A similar retest now could drag Bitcoin back toward its July low near $57,800. Binance Research found that comparable rebounds often revisited their lows.
The current cycle's drawdown has reached roughly 54%, smaller than the 77% or higher declines seen in past bear markets. If the July low holds, the halving clock pattern suggests the bear market may be over. A break below it would indicate a potential 2018-style final leg downward.
