Bitcoin holders are showing divergent behavior, with the number of non-empty wallets falling while larger holders continue to add to their positions, according to data from Santiment. The split comes as Bitcoin trades at $74,507, down 9.86% from a month ago, per BeInCrypto Markets.
Retail Wallets Decline
Santiment counted 59.99 million non-empty Bitcoin wallets on October 16, just short of 60 million. Since then, the total has fallen by about 108,700 as the price slid. However, a lower wallet count does not always mean fewer investors, as long downturns often push small traders to combine or empty wallets, Santiment noted.
“That type of retail capitulation has historically been a necessary ingredient before many major crypto recoveries,” the post read.
Smart Money Accumulates
On the other side, wallets holding 1 to 10 BTC added 10,076 BTC in two weeks, while the 10 to 100 BTC tier picked up another 4,131 BTC, Santiment data shows. In total, smart money wallets added over 14,200 BTC in the past two weeks, worth about $1.06 billion at current prices.
ETF Outflows Offset Gains
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) moved in the opposite direction, losing a net $2.13 billion over seven trading days from October 30, according to SoSoValue data. Six of those sessions ended in outflows, including a $643.3 million exit on October 30, the largest daily outflow since June 25. ETF outflows have roughly doubled the amount added by smart money wallets.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Santiment’s bullish case requires BTC to hold $74,000 to $75,000 while wallet counts keep falling. A reclaim of $78,000 to $80,000 would strengthen it, the firm said.
“Exchange supply is also down near 1.28M BTC, so a reclaim of $78K to $80K alongside continued retail capitulation would strengthen the case that sellers are becoming exhausted at the perfect time that savvy traders are accumulating,” it added.
That test follows a failed one. In October, the firm tied its bottom read to $79,000, and the BTC price fell through that level within days. Downside risk also sits close, since BTC briefly touched $73,708 on November 8, its lowest level since August.
Santiment said the signal weakens if price breaks recent lows and smart money wallets start selling. With ETF outflows running at about double their purchases, the $75,000 test may hinge on whether fund selling slows.
