Bitcoin experienced significant intraday volatility on September 11, dropping to a low of $76,046 before recovering with a 5.05% rally to $79,890 within an hour and a half. The swift price movement triggered liquidations across both long and short positions.
Following the initial spike, BTC consolidated between $76,500 and $77,500 over the weekend. In recent trading, Bitcoin moved above the upper boundary of this range, though it remains uncertain whether the price will decline further.
Central Bank Decisions Shape Market Outlook
The coming week presents potential catalysts for continued volatility. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are scheduled to announce policy decisions, with markets pricing in an 85% probability of a U.S. rate hike. The Bank of Japan is expected to increase rates by 1.25%.
According to analysis from XWIN Japan, the key variable will be how hawkish both central banks sound following their announcements. Rising U.S. yields combined with yen appreciation could create particularly tight liquidity conditions, potentially prompting investors to reduce exposure to cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.
Derivative Sentiment and Price Support
Data from derivative markets on Binance shows a buildup of optimism since May's $82,850 peak, a shift from the extreme bearish sentiment seen earlier in the year. Analyst Darkfost noted that periods of bearish consensus have historically marked the end of Bitcoin corrections, with subsequent rallies fueled by short position liquidations.
However, sustaining the recovery requires consistent spot market demand beyond the derivative positioning that has driven recent moves.
September's Seller Pressure
Monthly cumulative volume delta (CVD) analysis indicates that September has been seller-dominated. According to analyst Joao Wedson, this does not necessarily signal a bearish trend if Bitcoin maintains key support levels like $76,000. If passive buy orders absorb aggressive selling at these support levels despite negative monthly CVD, it would indicate underlying demand despite the negative aggregate buying pressure.
