Bitcoin reached $84,352 on Monday before sliding to around $81,000 overnight, then bouncing back above $83,000. The week's low came on October 8 at $80,393, leaving Bitcoin down approximately 4% from its weekly opening.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflow in nearly four months, with $679 million leaving the funds—equivalent to roughly 8,000 BTC at current prices. Since launching in January 2024, the ETFs have accumulated a net $57 billion, making last week's outflow approximately 1.2% of that total. Higher bond yields may have contributed to selling pressure, as the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on Monday, its highest close of the year.
Michael Saylor's Strategy purchased only 250 BTC for $21.5 million between October 5 and 11, marking its smallest Bitcoin purchase of 2026. During the same period, Strategy spent $192.4 million buying back its own preferred shares. The company now holds 848,250 BTC at an average cost of $75,444.
Market Forces Keeping Bitcoin Afloat
Leveraged traders provided some selling pressure. On Binance, open interest in Bitcoin futures fell from approximately 97,400 BTC to about 92,400 BTC over the week, with funding rates declining to near zero, indicating excess leverage had been cleared. However, about 25,000 BTC moved onto exchanges on October 6 alone, followed by another 5,300 BTC net between October 8 and 11, potentially signaling selling intentions.
Two forces are supporting the price. Spot buyers increased their activity starting October 9, with the share of aggressive buyer volume rising to 55.6%, then 52.7%, then 56.3%. More significantly, approximately 63% of all Bitcoin has not moved in more than a year, creating an inelastic supply that limits price impact from ETF outflows.
Critical Support Levels Ahead
An analyst tracking market data identified two possible paths forward, treating them as roughly equally likely. A bullish scenario would see a stronger rally from the $80,944 low, with near-term targets of $84,177 to $86,232, potentially rising to $88,597 to $97,637. This view breaks down if Bitcoin falls below $80,393.
An alternative scenario involves the current rally stalling between $84,956 and $85,434 within a resistance zone extending to $86,600, followed by another decline. A clear break above $86,600 would favor the bullish path.
The $75,000 level has emerged as particularly important. This support zone sits near two critical cost bases: Strategy's average cost of $75,444 and short-term holders' average cost of approximately $74,400. If Bitcoin corrects to this level, both the largest corporate holder and average new buyers would return to breakeven, making their holding or selling decisions pivotal for the next major move.
