Bitcoin remained near the $73,000 level on November 10 after a Federal Reserve rate‑hike probability shift following the release of October CPI data.
FedWatch probabilities
The CME FedWatch tool showed the chance of a 50‑basis‑point hike in December increase from 0% to 13.6%, while the odds of a 25‑basis‑point hike rose from 84% to 86.4%.
October CPI data
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, above the 0.3% forecast, and core CPI increased 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. The figures met a threshold cited by Fed Governor Christopher Waller for considering a larger rate move.
Market expectations
Weighted by the three possible outcomes, the expected size of the December hike moved from 21.0 basis points to 28.4 basis points. A 50‑basis‑point move remains less likely than a 25‑basis‑point hike, with the odds ratio for the larger move needing to increase more than sixfold to become the most probable scenario.
Related economic data
October’s headline CPI slowed from 0.6% in September to 0.4%, while core inflation held steady at 0.3% for a third month. Transportation services inflation rose 0.8%.
Potential drivers for a larger hike
Analysts note that a confirmation of core inflation in the upcoming October PCE report, a strong December jobs report, and continued support for higher rates from Fed members could increase the likelihood of a 50‑basis‑point increase.
Market reaction
Following the CPI release, the two‑year Treasury yield rose about 19 basis points to 4.74%, the 10‑year yield approached 4.99%, the dollar index gained roughly 0.6%, and gold fell more than 2%.
Bitcoin-specific factors
Data from Farside Investors indicated net outflows of about $1.5 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs between November 2 and November 9. Glassnode reported that roughly 38% of short‑term holder supply was in profit, and noted a modeled long‑liquidation band between $73,000 and $76,000.
Outlook
Future price movement may depend on upcoming inflation and employment reports, as well as the Fed’s communication stance ahead of its December meeting. Continued ETF outflows or a shift toward more aggressive tightening could pressure Bitcoin lower, while easing outflows and a softer inflation outlook could support a rebound toward the $75,700‑$77,700 range identified in recent analysis.
