Bitcoin entered November defending the $76,000 level, which aligns with the average cost basis of short‑term holders. The price held after a Binance hack pushed the cryptocurrency to a six‑week low of $76,275.
On‑Chain Activity
Glassnode data shows heavy exchange inflows during the late‑October slide, with net deposits of about 11,500 BTC and 8,000 BTC on separate days, indicating sell‑side pressure. Within days, net outflows of roughly 40,000 BTC were recorded, among the largest of 2026, though these outflows do not suggest accumulation.
The hack resulted in the removal of 18,270 BTC from a Binance hot wallet, registering as an exchange outflow. After withdrawals reopened on November 1, users pulled about $2 billion within three hours. The attacker’s coins remain in 19 addresses, and any future movement toward exchanges could add fresh supply pressure.
Short‑Term Holder Metric
The Short‑Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio sits near 1.02, indicating short‑term holders are roughly 2 % in profit, with a cost basis close to $76,000. Historically in 2026, drops below 1.0 preceded capitulation, while rebounds above the level have preceded rallies.
Technical Overview
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is testing the bull‑market support band formed by the 21‑week exponential moving average at $76,874 and the 20‑week simple moving average at $73,779. The Gaussian channel has remained red since March, indicating a broader downtrend, and the weekly Relative Strength Index reads 52, a neutral level.
Daily indicators show a bearish signal, with the Supertrend indicator flipping red after the hack—the first red flip since May. The daily Relative Strength Index has slipped to 38, and Bitcoin is holding the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $77,876. Resistance lies between $81,000 and $82,000, with a stronger supply zone between $85,000 and $87,000.
Potential Scenarios
If Bitcoin maintains the $76,000 level and regains $82,000, the path could lead toward $87,000. A break below $76,000 would expose the $73,000‑$74,000 zone, where multiple technical levels converge. A further decline could target the lower band of the Gaussian channel near $71,000.
Market Catalysts
Following the hack, Bitcoin ETFs experienced $643 million in outflows. Additionally, the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 add an element of uncertainty to market sentiment.
