Bitcoin traded largely flat for a second consecutive day, repeatedly failing to break above $80,500 as investors appeared to stay on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The stagnation left the cryptocurrency increasingly likely to close October in negative territory, reversing gains recorded in August and September and spoiling what some investors had expected to be another “Uptober.”
Macro Calendar Weighs on Sentiment
According to Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, bitcoin’s hesitation around $80,000 comes during a crowded week of macroeconomic and sector-wide catalysts. These include the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, Big Tech earnings reports, and Anthropic’s initial public offering filing, which put artificial intelligence valuations back under scrutiny.
“I remain bullish on crypto, AI, and frontier technologies over the long term, but investors have good reason to be selective right now,” Ahuja said, pointing to inflation, high technology valuations, and restrictive borrowing costs as factors weighing on sentiment. “Until markets get reassurance that corporate earnings can support current valuations and that financial conditions are moving in the right direction, I expect investors to remain fairly cautious.”
Intraday Swings
Bitstamp 24-hour data shows bitcoin nearly reached $80,700 late Monday morning as buyers briefly seized control. The rally was short-lived, with the price dipping back below $80,000 and bottoming out near $79,600. The cryptocurrency then entered a tight seesaw pattern bounded by resistance under $80,500 and support near $79,500. Shortly after 6 a.m. EST, bitcoin breached the $79,500 floor for the first time in the session before rebounding above $80,300.
At the time of writing (12:25 p.m. ET), bitcoin hovered just below $80,500, showing a 0.4% gain over 24 hours, with its market capitalization unchanged near $1.61 trillion.
Cycles and Monetary Uncertainty
Ahuja noted that while October is shaping up to be a difficult month for crypto despite historical seasonal strength, bitcoin’s four-year cycle and broader market mechanics remain in play.
“Crypto remains sensitive to liquidity, institutional positioning, and broader risk appetite, and investors have little incentive to take on additional exposure while monetary policy remains uncertain,” he explained. “The institutionalization of crypto has changed how capital moves through the market, but I don’t think it has eliminated bitcoin’s historical cycles. For now, I’d be watching ETF flows, leverage, and broader liquidity conditions.”
Beyond monetary policy, Ahuja said the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections add another layer of uncertainty, particularly regarding the regulatory landscape for crypto, AI, and energy infrastructure heading into 2027.
Liquidations Cool Off
In the derivatives market, bitcoin’s flat price action capped its liquidations under $20 million, a significant drop from the $56 million recorded a day earlier. Coinglass data showed long bets liquidated at nearly $12 million, while wiped-out shorts tallied just under $8 million.
Across the broader crypto economy, the picture differed slightly: of the $133 million liquidated, long positions accounted for $62 million versus nearly $70 million in short positions.
