Bitcoin traded around $86,100 on Monday morning, up 1.14% in 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion. The cryptocurrency remains roughly $1,200 below its recent swing high of $87,354.
Friday's U.S. jobs report drove market sentiment. Employers added only 29,000 positions in September according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly a third of economist expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, while annual wage growth cooled to 3.0%. Revisions worsened the picture: July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs, and August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000.
The weak employment data shifted expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Bond traders gave an October rate hike roughly 16% to 22% odds after the report, down from 64% the week prior. The Fed previously raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16.
Broader markets responded positively to the employment data. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, the Nasdaq gained 1.19% to 27,190.86, and the Dow added 0.49% to 51,176.96.
Golden Cross Signals Medium-Term Strength
Bitcoin's daily chart shows two moving average crossovers. The 50-day exponential moving average crossed above the 200-day EMA in mid-September, marking a golden cross. More recently, the 100-day EMA also crossed above the 200-day EMA.
The 100-day and 200-day cross is considered a stronger confirmation because it reflects sustained price elevation over months rather than a short-term bounce. Together, the two crosses indicate that both short-term and medium-term averages sit above the long-term average, suggesting Bitcoin has rebuilt its medium-term trend from the sub-$60,000 levels of July.
Technical momentum remains strong. The Relative Strength Index sits at 64.7, indicating strength without extreme overbought conditions. The Average Directional Index reads at 43.4, signaling a strong trend.
ETF Inflows and Market Breadth
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.84 million in net inflows on the latest daily reading, with total net assets at $101.1 billion. The broader crypto market is worth $2.94 trillion, up 1.36% on the day. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 68, in "greed" territory.
Altcoins showed mixed performance. Ethereum trades at $2,711, up 0.59%, and XRP is at $1.51, up 0.81%. Solana slipped 0.91% to $120.31. All top 10 altcoins were in the green, with Hyperliquid recording the largest gain at 3.68% on the day to $93.17.
Upcoming Catalysts
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September CPI data on October 14. The Fed's next policy meeting runs October 27-28, with a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
