Bitcoin drew an estimated $4.9 billion in fresh capital over the 30 days to October 5, but most of the network's valuation gains came from existing holders trading coins to each other at higher prices rather than new buyers entering the market.
According to Glassnode's on-chain report published October 7, 2026, the estimate of new capital combines three sources: US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, growth in stablecoin supply, and corporate treasury purchases. Over the same period, Bitcoin's realized capitalization rose by approximately $12.8 billion, meaning new money accounted for less than two-fifths of the increase.
Realized capitalization values each coin at the price it last changed hands on-chain. When it rises, it can reflect either fresh buyers bringing new dollars into the system or existing holders trading coins among themselves at higher levels, revaluing the supply without substantial outside cash arriving. Glassnode's data pointed mostly to the latter scenario.
Bitcoin recorded its first daily close above $85,000 on October 4. The firm found that 86 percent of exchange inflows that day came from short-term holders realizing profits.
Trading volume reinforced this pattern. Combined spot exchange and ETF trading averaged $6.8 billion per day over the past week on a seven-day basis, below roughly 90 percent of trading days since January 2024. Glassnode flagged this as a vulnerability, noting that short-term selling could trigger corrections unless inflows pick up meaningfully.
The current rally followed a similar structure to advances in 2024 and 2025, which showed modest new capital paired with existing holders repricing their coins. Glassnode identified two conditions for the rally to regain momentum: two daily closes back above $76,700, which it calls the True Market Mean, and renewed growth in realized cap driven by stronger spot demand and higher ETF inflows rather than holders recycling coins among themselves.
