Bitcoin could benefit from a slowdown in the pace of global monetary tightening even while interest rates remain elevated, according to a November 2026 report from Binance Research. The report argues that the speed at which tightening spreads across major economies may matter more for bitcoin than the actual level of rates.
Tightening Momentum and Bitcoin Returns
According to the report, eight of the Group of 10 central banks raised rates over the preceding six months, while two kept rates unchanged. However, the pace at which tightening spread has slowed since peaking in July.
Binance Research used a monetary policy diffusion index that tracks whether central banks have raised, lowered, or maintained rates relative to six months earlier. The index remained elevated at 0.8, but its six-month change had moderated from its July peak.
The report found a negative 0.62 correlation between changes in the index and bitcoin’s six-month returns since 2021, suggesting that BTC has historically performed better when the momentum of global tightening slows.
“For BTC, what matters is the speed at which tightening spreads, more than how widespread it is,” the report states.
Binance Research pointed to the previous tightening cycle as evidence. Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, even though the diffusion index remained at its peak. The cryptocurrency’s six-month returns subsequently turned positive in February 2023, well before G10 central banks began easing. The researchers also cited 2024, when widespread easing coincided with bitcoin’s strongest six-month performance of that cycle, with returns exceeding 160% in March.
Fed Decision Could Test Recovery
The report suggests a similar transition could be developing. Assuming no further policy changes, the diffusion index would remain at 0.8 while its six-month momentum measure could decline to approximately 0.3 by January 2027. Even additional rate increases by remaining central banks would not necessarily reverse the slowdown, according to the researchers.
“If the historical relationship persists, the peak in tightening momentum marks a meaningful turn for BTC,” the report states.
However, the analysis does not establish that slowing tightening will necessarily trigger a sustained bitcoin recovery. Inflation, Treasury yields, and broader investor risk appetite remain important variables.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision could prove particularly consequential. At the time of the report, futures markets assigned an approximately 80% to 85% probability to a quarter-point rate increase in December, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 5%. A hawkish surprise could prolong pressure on cryptocurrencies, even if the broader global tightening cycle continues losing momentum.
Tokenized Stocks Gain Momentum
Beyond monetary policy, Binance Research identified tokenized equities as an increasingly important area of cryptocurrency adoption, with growing evidence that investors are using blockchain-based securities for more than trading.
The report highlighted Binance’s Bstocks, which reached $1 billion in assets under management in 125 days, less than half the time it took rival issuer Ondo to achieve the same milestone. Since its launch in June, Bstocks has accounted for more than 60% of the growth in the tokenized stock market during the period examined.
Binance Research argued that onchain utilization rate offers a more meaningful measure of adoption than rapid asset growth. As of Oct. 31, Bstocks had an onchain utilization rate of 18.54%, compared with an industry average of 13.91%. The metric measures the proportion of active assets under management deployed in DeFi applications, including lending protocols and liquidity pools.
“The depth of utilization is even more significant than the speed of issuance,” the report states.
The researchers argued that sustained growth in DeFi utilization allows tokenized equities to support increased lending and liquidity without needing to issue more tokens or rely solely on rising asset values. This shift moves the focus of tokenization beyond initial issuance, settlement speed, and access toward maximizing the productive use of existing capital.
Binance Research identified growing demand for around-the-clock trading as a key driver of tokenized equity adoption, with 56% of Bstocks’ trading volume occurring outside regular U.S. market hours. Investors in emerging and frontier markets accounted for approximately 70% of trading activity, highlighting tokenization’s potential to expand access to global equities.
The report emphasized that sustained onchain utilization, rather than issuance growth alone, will determine the sector’s long-term success.
