Bitcoin mining companies have signed more than $100 billion in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing contracts while currently generating only about $1.1 billion in annualized revenue from these arrangements.
According to analysis by CoinShares, more than 4 gigawatts of AI and HPC capacity are under contract across publicly traded miners, but only approximately 550 megawatts are actively billing. This gap between signed contracts and operational capacity reflects the infrastructure buildout challenge facing the sector.
Valuation Premium for AI Transition
Investors have assigned a substantial premium to miners making the AI transition. Companies with contracted AI or HPC capacity trade at an average of 12.9 times enterprise value to next-12-month sales, compared with 3.7 times for miners without such agreements. This valuation premium reflects the scarcity and value of grid-connected power in an environment where new data-center development faces significant obstacles.
Power Scarcity Transforms Mining Assets
Mining sites have become premium AI assets due to existing grid connections and operational power infrastructure. CoinShares recorded at least 225 moratoriums or restrictions on data-center development across 30 states, with 151 still in force. New York introduced a statewide pause on environmental permits for facilities of 50 megawatts or more, while restrictions have spread to state and county levels elsewhere.
The U.S. grid interconnection queue contains roughly 2,600 gigawatts of projects. Projects completed in 2025 waited a median of more than five years between entering the queue and becoming operational, giving miners with energized facilities an advantage over developers starting from scratch.
A recent transaction valued three fully leased Northern Virginia AI data centers at roughly $27 million per megawatt, while some publicly traded miners with energized but unleased capacity are valued below $3 million per megawatt.
Economics of Conversion
Retrofitting Bitcoin mining sites for AI requires approximately $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, compared with roughly $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt for Bitcoin mining infrastructure. Despite these costs, AI infrastructure currently generates an estimated $1.5 million in annualized profit per megawatt, roughly three times the $500,000 available from Bitcoin mining under current conditions.
Ten of the 12 mining companies followed by CoinShares gained between 70% and 195% during the second quarter, with Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, surging 194.4% even as it shut down Bitcoin mining operations.
Accelerating Exits from Bitcoin Mining
Several major operators are absorbing losses to accelerate the AI transition. Core Scientific paid $41.9 million during the second quarter to terminate an agreement covering about 15 exahashes per second of next-generation Bitcoin mining equipment. Its remaining self-mining business posted a negative 56% gross margin during the period.
Keel shut down its remaining Bitcoin mining operations on June 29 and is expected to report no mining revenue in the third quarter. IREN's revenue mix has flipped, with AI cloud revenue reaching $70.5 million in its latest quarter, surpassing the $66.7 million generated from Bitcoin mining for the first time.
Cipher Digital has stopped planning new mining capital expenditure and expects Bitcoin production to become immaterial ahead of a likely exit by the end of 2027. TeraWulf has also retired mining buildings as HPC leases take an increasing share of its business, with those contracts accounting for 71% of quarterly revenue.
CoinShares estimates that at least 35 exahashes per second is scheduled to leave publicly listed miners, equivalent to roughly 4.7% of the Bitcoin network's recent 750 exahash per second hashrate.
Delayed Reversal Potential
Bitcoin's rebound to approximately $77,000 has improved mining economics, lifting hash price to roughly $38 per petahash per second per day. However, the shift away from mining may be difficult to reverse. Several companies have committed sites to leases lasting as long as 15 years, while substantial capital has already been redirected toward AI infrastructure development.
Construction and Deployment Challenges Ahead
Only about 550 megawatts of more than 4 gigawatts of contracted capacity is currently billing, leaving most of the sector's $100 billion-plus backlog dependent on future construction, financing, and deployment. Some conversion is underway, with Core Scientific billing 437 megawatts and IREN targeting $4 billion in annual operating recurring revenue by December.
CoinShares expects the industry's AI and HPC revenue run rate to more than double in its next report. The key risk is that construction, financing, or power infrastructure fails to arrive quickly enough. Companies that complete projects on schedule will begin putting cash flow behind the valuations investors have already assigned, while those that do not could remain priced for an AI business that exists mostly in backlog.
