Bitcoin has reached a momentum threshold not seen since the beginning of its 2019 and 2023 bull markets, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm reported on September 22 that bitcoin's market value to realized value ratio, known as MVRV, moved back above its 365-day average after an extended period below it.
The MVRV ratio compares bitcoin's current market value with an estimated value based on when coins last changed hands. Crossing its annual average indicates the ratio has risen above its recent trend. Glassnode noted that this same crossover appeared near the start of both the 2019 and 2023 bull markets.
Bitcoin's price advance that prompted the signal is significant: the asset recovered from this year's lows and briefly reclaimed $87,000 this week, marking its highest level since January. However, analysts emphasize that the indicator measures a change in the relationship between market value and holders' estimated cost basis rather than predicting future buying activity.
Demand signals and potential resistance
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew nearly $999 million in net inflows on September 21, their largest single-day total of 2026. This ETF demand provides a separate measure of buying activity from the onchain momentum signal.
Potential selling pressure exists at current price levels. An estimated 1.07 million BTC was acquired between $83,000 and $86,000, with the largest concentration around $85,000. Most of these coins belong to long-term holders who may sell as they approach breakeven prices, creating a test for whether current demand can absorb this supply.
Options traders have built positions at higher price levels. Glassnode identified $95,000 to $97,000 as the first major test if the rally continues, while noting that profit-taking has remained relatively light so far.
Altcoin market lags
Bitcoin's improving signal has not extended to the broader altcoin market. Glassnode reported that less than 25 percent of the median tracked altcoin's supply remains in profit, measured as the share of coin supply held above its estimated acquisition cost. While 72.5 percent of tracked altcoins outperformed bitcoin over the preceding week, recent gains have not returned most holdings to profitability for investors who bought at higher prices.
