Bitcoin closed 2025 down 6.34% and has lost roughly 15.65% so far in 2026, trading near $73,850 on November 10. If the price does not rise above the 2026 opening level of about $87,500 before year‑end, the cryptocurrency will record two consecutive calendar‑year losses for the first time.
Historical context
Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced several sharp declines. The most severe were a 73.56% drop in 2018 and a 64.27% drop in 2022. Each of those negative years was followed by a positive year, preventing back‑to‑back annual losses.
Current decline compared with past crashes
The combined decline for 2025 and 2026 is about 21% when accounting for compounding, far smaller than the 74% crash in 2018 or the 64% fall in 2022. Bitcoin’s price peaked around $126,000 in October 2025 and fell below $58,000 during 2026, a decline of more than 50% from that peak.
Factors influencing the milder drawdown
Analysts note that a growing institutional investor base, the presence of spot exchange‑traded funds, and deeper market liquidity may be moderating the severity of the current bear market, though they have not eliminated large price swings.
Potential outcomes
With about 50 days remaining in 2026, Bitcoin would need to rise roughly 18.5% from its November 10 level to finish the year in positive territory. A third consecutive loss in 2027 would extend the streak, but that scenario remains speculative.
