The two-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.19% on Monday, its highest level since February 2025, according to TradingView data, extending a sharp rise that accelerated after Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
The yield is up roughly 80 basis points since the onset of the Iran war in late February, including a gain of more than 10 basis points last week alone.
As a maturity closely aligned with the Fed’s policy horizon, the two-year yield is particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations. Its continued ascent signals growing market bets that the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike, a stark reversal from earlier in the year, when markets were pricing in at least two rate cuts.
Hence, rising yields are typically seen as a headwind for risk assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin fell nearly 14% last week, briefly dipping below $60,000. As of writing, it changed hands at $62,600, having hit a high of over $63,600 late Sunday.