Bitcoin is currently trading at $77,129.12, registering a 22.8% increase over the past week. Against the backdrop of this recent price action, David Duong, the former Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, stated that he now expects the cryptocurrency to cross $100,000 before the end of the year.
Speaking on the Milk Road Show, Duong explained that his outlook has shifted higher in recent weeks. He previously anticipated that Bitcoin would consolidate within the $85,000 to $90,000 range, where trading volume had concentrated for a period. However, a closer assessment of the macroeconomic environment led him to adjust his forecast into six-figure territory.
Drivers Behind the Q4 Setup
Duong highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin's buyer base. He noted that the market has transitioned away from a predominantly retail-driven model toward exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. This shift has been influenced partly by lower costs and reduced custody concerns following a recent self-custody security incident.
According to Duong, these ETF flows can outweigh traditional interest rate narratives for extended periods, a dynamic he expects to strengthen heading toward the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth quarter.
Regulatory Catalysts and Technical Outlook
The upcoming Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, rescheduled for September 15, was identified as a potential market wildcard. Duong noted that the market is pricing in roughly a 20% probability of the bill passing, which he described as a "one-sided" setup.
He indicated that an unexpected passage could serve as a major positive catalyst, whereas a failure to pass would likely have a minimal impact due to low current expectations. Furthermore, he emphasized that regulatory progress is not solely dependent on the bill, citing ongoing rulemaking efforts at both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as supportive factors.
On the technical side, Duong stated that a sustained move above recent range highs in the $65,000 to $70,000 area, accompanied by stronger trading volume, would confirm a new trading regime independent of any specific calendar date. He added that his broader timing perspective is driven primarily by capital flows and macroeconomic conditions rather than fixed events.
