Yesterday, a Bitcoin price prediction was published that reasons on the long term, i.e. on BTC cycles.
It was posted on X (formerly Twittter) by the crypto analyst who goes by the name CryptoCon.
Bitcoin’s cycles
Bitcoin has a definite cycle that lasts on average about three years and ten months.
This is the cycle interrupted by the halving of miners’ rewards, which is Bitcoin’s only monetary policy measure, and it is quite predictable.
In fact, a halving always occurs exactly every 210,000 blocks, and it typically takes about 10 minutes to mine a block.
In theory, therefore, a halving should occur every 4 years or so, but so far the actual average block time has always been slightly less than 10 minutes.
This means that, on average, a halving has occurred every three years and ten months.
The first block of the Bitcoin blockchain was mined on 3 January 2009, and the first halving took place in November 2012.
There have been three halving events to date (2012, 2016 and 2020), and in all three cases the following year triggered a major bull run (2013, 2017 and 2021), followed by a bear market the following year (2014, 2018 and 2022).
The halving is thought to reduce the supply of BTCs on the market, as miners are forced to sell the BTCs they receive on the market to finance the high costs of mining (especially electricity).
If they collect less, they have less to sell and this reduces supply, although not immediately.
The next cycle
Bitcoin’s next cycle will begin with the fourth halving, which will occur exactly at the 840,000 block that is expected to be mined in April 2024, or May at the latest.
CryptoCon’s forecast shows that the bottom of every bear market has marked a reversal in bitcoin’s price trend, and this seems to have happened even after last November’s bang.
We are now effectively in the fourth phase of the fourth cycle, although the first cycle is somewhat different from the others, so it is often not included in comparisons.
The next halving will start the first phase of the fifth cycle, which in all three previous cases has been characterised by a period of rising BTC prices.
This has always been followed by a second phase, the speculative bubble, which in turn is followed by the third phase, the bear market.
CryptoCon’s Bitcoin Price Forecast
According to CryptoCon, the next bull run should start on the 28th of November 2024, with the next all-time high expected in a timeframe between the beginning of November and the end of December the following year.
The next bear market low should be recorded in a timeframe between the beginning of November and the end of December 2026.
CryptoCon does not make any price predictions here, only about the course of the next price cycle.
In fact, although in theory there should be no certainty about Bitcoin’s price trend, there is certainty about the halving cycle, i.e. the fact that BTC’s monetary policy is updated every approximately three years and ten months.
CryptoCon calls this prediction “The November 28th Cycles Theory”, as the start of the bull run, the peak of the bubble and the trough of the bear market have historically occurred around this date. The 28th of November is also the date of the first halving, that of 2012.
We would then be in the pause phase of the fourth cycle, which should last until the next halving. This is historically the longest phase of the cycle, during which the price of bitcoin hovers around half of its all-time high ($69,000 in November 2021).
Halving and price: The long-term forecast for Bitcoin
Although it is clear from the chart published by CryptoCon that the price of bitcoin has so far slavishly followed the halving cycle, it is important to distinguish between the two.
The fact is that the halving is a safe and predictable technical process, whereas the price trend is not, as it also depends on external factors.
What is surprising, however, is that in all these years, with very different macroeconomic conditions, the price cycle of bitcoin has continued to follow exactly the rhythm outlined by the 28 November theory, as if the halving cycle, fixed and certain, had managed to prevail over the uncertain and fickle external conditions.
It is possible that such an ironclad monetary policy does in fact produce relatively constant and predictable effects, with external conditions mainly conditioning its extremes and the magnitude of the rises and falls.
On the other hand, CryptoCon does not say in this forecast what prices bitcoin might reach in the future, but only when the various up and down phases will begin and when future peaks are likely to be recorded.