Prediction market traders are committing millions of dollars to bitcoin price targets ranging from $50,000 to $150,000, highlighting a divided crowd regarding the cryptocurrency's near-term direction. Meanwhile, equity, macro, and quantitative research firm Bernstein projects six-digit figures by the end of the year and into 2027.
On Polymarket, nearly $59.7 million in volume has accumulated in contracts evaluating what price bitcoin will reach before the end of 2026. With bitcoin recently trading above $75,000, traders assigned a 69% probability to hitting $85,000, while the odds for $90,000 stood at 49%. Higher targets saw steeper drop-offs, with $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, $120,000 at 13%, and $150,000 at 4%.
Traders are also hedging against downside movement. Polymarket participants priced the probability of bitcoin touching $70,000 before year-end at 67%, with $65,000 at 44%, $60,000 at 29%, and $50,000 at 17%.
Activity on Kalshi reflects similar caution. Kalshi's bitcoin $100,000 market recorded about $11.5 million in trading volume, with odds at 7% before October, 22% before December, and 29% before January 2027. An additional Kalshi contract examining whether bitcoin will crash to $50,000 before reaching $100,000 placed the $50,000 outcome at 21%. Meanwhile, Kalshi's market for the $150,000 target attracted over $36 million in volume, though traders assigned only a 6% probability to reaching that level before January 2027.
In contrast to the prediction markets, Wall Street research firm Bernstein maintains a more optimistic outlook. In a note shared on Wednesday, lead analyst Gautam Chhugani and Bernstein analysts projected bitcoin returning to roughly $125,000 by year-end, reaching $150,000 by mid-2027, and achieving a cycle peak near $300,000 by the end of 2029 in the firm's base case.
Bernstein's perspective is supported by institutional ownership, exchange-traded fund demand, a fixed supply of 21 million bitcoin, and macroeconomic conditions involving sovereign debt and interest costs. Conversely, prediction market participants continue to weigh immediate upside levels alongside downside risk layers.
