Bitcoin rallied by 8.10% after hitting a low of $75,064 on Wednesday. The price dip occurred following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, suggesting the earlier pullback from $82,000 in September stemmed from the market pricing in rising odds of a rate hike.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin's yearly moving average stood at $80,701. Recoveries from July lows of $60,000 and the recent resurgence from $76,000 pushed BTC back above the 365-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.
This recovery occurred despite several bearish macroeconomic and regulatory developments, including the failure of the CLARITY Act to pass in the Senate, an ongoing transition to tightening liquidity conditions due to inflation, potential rate hikes in 2027, and an interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan. Crypto researcher Bull Theory noted on X that this resilience resembles the 2023 market bottom.
Holder Dynamics and Market Sentiment
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that long-term holder supply has steadily increased since February, while short-term holder supply—defined as coins aged 155 days or under—has declined. Crypto analyst Funding Vest described this as a record phase of accumulation, shaking out weak hands while high-conviction holders accumulated assets, which could potentially constrict supply if prices continue upward.
However, analysts point out potential warning signs. According to analyst Joao Wedson, trading activity remains subdued compared to previous bull market levels, reflecting weaker retail participation.
Bitcoin is currently working to break its bearish trend and may not have fully transitioned into a bull run. Additional risk factors, such as upcoming rate hikes and a rising U.S. Dollar Index, could also impact risk-on markets.
