Bitcoin rebounded to $82,837 on Friday, gaining 1.38% after dipping to $80,427 on Thursday, marking its lowest level since early September. The broader crypto market cap rose 2% to $2.8 trillion, though it remains well below the $3 trillion level reached a week earlier.
Despite the recovery, market sentiment has shifted notably. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 56, a neutral reading, down from 71 on October 2 when sentiment was firmly in greed territory. Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated, with investors withdrawing $484.9 million on Wednesday—the worst day since June 25—and a further $244 million on Thursday.
The outflows coincided with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.32%, and Federal Reserve minutes indicated the possibility of another interest rate hike by year-end.
Trader Expectations for October
Prediction markets reflect trader pessimism about near-term price action. Myriad, a prediction market, gives a 67% probability that Bitcoin trades at or below $80,000 before October ends, with 40% odds for $77,500 and 24% odds for $75,000. A separate weekly market puts 49% odds on Bitcoin finishing above $87,500, suggesting traders expect price compression with room for further downside.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades below the 50-period exponential moving average, indicating the short-term trend has not yet reversed. The Relative Strength Index reads 51.2, a neutral level suggesting the asset has cooled after an overbought phase. The Average Directional Index stands at 37.9, well above the 25 threshold that confirms a trend, with directional lines showing buyers above sellers, indicating a still-bullish trend despite the pullback.
Analysts identify the $83,000 zone as the first resistance test for the bounce. Reclaiming this level would put $84,433 in play, while the September high of $87,354.33 remains the ceiling for bulls targeting a daily close above that level.
