Bitcoin has posted its first weekly close above its 50-week moving average since November 2025, ending a 45-week absence from this technical level. The signal arrived on Sunday with Bitcoin trading at $78,786, approximately 3.0% above the 50-week average and 23.9% above the 200-week average.
According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, reclaiming the 50-week moving average has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are in. Thorn identified 13 instances in completed bear markets when Bitcoin crossed back above this level. In only two of those cases—both during the 2021–2022 decline—were lower lows recorded afterward.
Bitcoin lost the 50-week moving average during the week of November 16, 2025, and subsequently reached a bear market low of $58,525 on June 30, 2026. This represented a 53.1% decline from Bitcoin's October 2025 record of $124,824. Since that low, Bitcoin has gained 39%.
The 50-week and 200-week moving averages have historically provided important reference points during major market cycles. The 200-week moving average has acted as a floor, with only 56 of 642 weekly closes printing below it since its existence. The 50-week average has historically served as a ceiling that caps rallies until a drawdown ends.
Bitcoin's recovery above both levels strengthens the case that the June low could mark the cycle bottom. However, the latest move has not eliminated the possibility of another decline. Several analysts expect Bitcoin to bottom in October, meaning the coming weeks will test whether June's low holds as the cycle floor.
Bitcoin appreciated roughly 30% since August and remained in the green for September with gains of 3.33%, despite volatile trading during the month. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $81,341.
