Bitcoin (BTC) began the final week of August trading near its highest levels since mid-May as its bear-market recovery reached a critical technical juncture. Following a five-day rally that brought gains of up to 27%, Bitcoin reached $79,550 last week before closing at $77,727 on Bitstamp.
The weekly candle close marked the first time Bitcoin finished above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) since November 2025. The key resistance trendline currently sits at $77,752. While traders frequently monitor the 50-week EMA during bear markets, historical precedents in prior market cycles—where BTC retested the line before capitulating to macro lows—have left some market participants cautious about the recent price strength.
August Performance and Investor Profitability
Despite lingering skepticism, Bitcoin consolidated near $77,500 over the weekend, maintaining a month-to-date gain of 22%. According to CoinGlass data, this positions the asset on track for its best-performing August since 2017.
The recent price ascent reclaimed several key thresholds, including the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) at $68,700. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant calculated STH net profitability at just over 11%. Meanwhile, long-term holder profitability moved from approximately breakeven to +18.5%, and new money profitability rose from -1.4% to +12.7%.
CryptoQuant noted that the breakeven point for new capital currently sits at $73,000. Analysts indicate that holding the $68,000 to $73,000 range is vital for maintaining structural durability, as losing this region could quickly push a large segment of recent buyers back into unrealized losses.
Macroeconomic Events and Central Bank Focus
Macroeconomic catalysts take center stage this week as central bankers gather for the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium. The event features Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote speech in the role, drawing intense market scrutiny following a recent US Treasury debt buyback initiative.
Last week, the US Treasury doubled the size of its debt buyback operations to $4 billion per operation, triggering a short squeeze that liquidated a record $3.1 billion in crypto short positions over two days. Analysts from Mosaic Asset Company suggested the intervention reflects broader concerns regarding liquidity regimes and potential currency debasement.
Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Wednesday. Consensus estimates project a 0.1% monthly increase, with the year-on-year inflation rate cooling to 3.6%.
Spot ETF Inflows Surge
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a sharp resurgence in demand, recording $1.9 billion in net inflows over the five trading days last week. Data from Farside Investors indicates this was the strongest weekly tally for the ETF cohort since October 2025.
The strong weekly performance contrasts sharply with June, which saw net outflows exceeding $4.5 billion. Total inflows for August reached $2.38 billion by the end of the week, establishing a new year-to-date record.
