Bitcoin climbed following the release of September employment data showing that the U.S. added only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the 84,000 economists had expected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the two previous months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
Following the report, the CME FedWatch odds of an interest rate hike at the upcoming October meeting dropped sharply to roughly 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week. Prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad priced in 80% odds of a rate hold on October 28. Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, have recently indicated that policymakers may not need to rush further rate increases.
The broader crypto market responded positively to the macroeconomic moves, with the total crypto market capitalization moving above $3 trillion. Bitcoin traded at $86,152, sitting approximately 1.4% below its September high of $87,354. ETF flows recorded $102 million in positive inflows, while Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.1% and the Fear & Greed Index registered at 71.
Technical indicators on Bitcoin charts present a mixed setup. The Average Directional Index stood at 41.8 with buyers above sellers, pointing to a strong trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average remained above the 200-day EMA, and the Relative Strength Index sat at 68.1, nearing the 70 overbought threshold where traders often take profits. Analysts note that while the technical and macro environments have supported risk assets in the short term, a December rate hike remains the base case for many market participants.
