An expected Federal Reserve pause next week may offer Bitcoin little relief, according to a market update from crypto derivatives exchange Bitunix, which pointed to rising oil risks and economists' unanimous expectation of another rate hike in December.
A Reuters poll cited in the analysis found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% at its Oct. 27–28 meeting. All 100, however, expect a hike in December, and nearly 60% forecast rates reaching 4.00%–4.25%.
Bitunix said an October pause would not necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle. For Bitcoin, higher oil prices and restrictive policy could weigh on prices through higher financing costs, tighter dollar liquidity and weaker risk appetite, the exchange said.
Iran stalemate keeps oil risks in play before midterms
Iran has refused to resume negotiations until Washington meets seven conditions, including lifting port restrictions and oil sanctions and recognizing Tehran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to the analysis.
Bitunix said Tehran appears intent on prolonging the standoff until the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, using elevated oil prices and shipping disruptions to pressure the White House.
US envoy Tom Barrack has said Washington will no longer provide an unlimited security guarantee for the Gulf, the exchange noted.
Bitunix also flagged President Donald Trump's proposed $8 billion in farm aid and potential cash payments to households, saying added fiscal support could make inflation harder to contain while energy and tariff costs stay elevated.
Equity markets are sending mixed signals. The S&P 500 sits about 1.6% below its record high, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen roughly 14% since Oct. 6.
The key test for crypto, according to Bitunix, is whether energy costs, rate expectations and AI investment risks deteriorate at the same time, a scenario that could force a broader repricing of risk assets.
Bitcoin rose on Wednesday and was last trading near $84,000, up about 2% over the past 24 hours, extending its gains even as expectations for further Fed tightening build.
