Bitcoin is approximately 18 months away from its fifth halving event. As of early October 2026, fewer than 80,000 blocks remain until the network reaches block height 1,050,000, where the halving will occur around April 12, 2028.
Block rewards will shrink from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC at that time. This reduction follows Bitcoin's design, introduced by pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, which cuts the block subsidy by 50% every 210,000 blocks. The network has completed four halvings to date, with the most recent in 2024.
Supply Implications
The 2028 halving will meaningfully compress Bitcoin's issuance rate. Daily miner rewards will fall from 450 BTC to 225 BTC, reducing annual new supply from approximately 164,000 BTC to 82,000 BTC. By the time the halving occurs, roughly 20.34 million BTC will be in circulation.
After 2028, Bitcoin's annual supply inflation is projected to reach 0.4%, substantially lower than gold's typical inflation rate. When the subsequent halving occurs in 2032, block rewards will halve again to 0.78125 BTC, marking the end of the four-year period when miners receive at least one full bitcoin per block.
Market Patterns and T-500 Period
Bitcoin historically has experienced price appreciation in the lead-up to and following halving events. The network is currently 55 days away from entering the T-500 period, a 500-day window prior to the halving that some analysts view as a significant timeframe for potential price movements.
Historical analysis of four completed T-500 windows shows an average return of 1,959% from start to finish, though researchers emphasize this represents a small sample rather than a forecast. Whether past patterns will continue remains uncertain, with some market participants questioning whether the traditional four-year cycle will hold through this halving.
