Bitcoin's daily golden cross formation dissolved Friday evening as the 50-day exponential moving average fell back below the 200-day EMA. The technical pattern had briefly confirmed earlier in the session before prices retreated to $77,438, undoing the bullish signal.
The intraday price action was dramatic. Bitcoin opened the day at $76,529, spiked to $79,837 in early trading, then pulled back to as low as $76,040 before settling near $77,438, still up 1.19% on the day. That volatility was enough to flip the daily moving average reading back to bearish territory.
A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one and is considered one of the most closely watched trend signals in financial markets. Bitcoin had not seen a confirmed daily golden cross since November. However, when the two averages trade close together, a single volatile session can push the crossover back and forth, as occurred Friday.
The reversal tracked a sharp repricing in interest rate expectations. After the day's inflation data showed a monthly core reading of 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% analysts expected, the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at next week's meeting surged to 86.5%, according to CME FedWatch data. Those odds had stood at roughly 69% immediately after the inflation numbers were released.
Rate hikes typically precede risk-off moves from investors, potentially pressuring risk assets including Bitcoin and technology stocks.
Broader Trend Remains Intact
Despite the daily golden cross reversal, technical indicators suggest underlying strength. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength regardless of direction, read at 45 on the daily chart, well above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise. The Relative Strength Index stood at 55.5, remaining on the bullish side of neutral.
On the 4-hour chart, the golden cross remains in place, with the 50-period EMA still above the 200-period EMA, a structure intact since late August. However, momentum has cooled on that timeframe. The 4-hour RSI dropped to 43.3 into bearish territory, and the Average Directional Index sat at 25.1, barely above the trend threshold.
