The next 48 hours could be decisive for Bitcoin's November setup, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28 and the release of PCE data presenting potential turning points for BTC momentum in the remaining fourth quarter.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting as it balances rising inflation with a weakening labor market. September payrolls increased by just 29,000, which may prompt policymakers to wait before making another move, according to Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, speaking to AMBCrypto ahead of the Fed meeting.
US inflation rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7% in September, the highest increase since May 2026. This sticky inflation, driven by higher energy prices, may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates. If officials signal that rates could remain higher for longer, Bitcoin could re-enter a bearish phase.
Key Levels in Focus
Bitcoin has fallen below its key resistance of $80k, and a retest of $75k is increasingly in play. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) also fell below 60%, potentially adding further downside pressure to crypto heading into November.
However, key data suggests BTC could hold above $80k even if the Fed takes a hawkish stance or opens the door for another rate hike in December. Demand is crucial to sustaining Bitcoin's recovery, Usi highlighted.
BTC previously rallied from $75k to $81k following the September 16 Fed meeting, despite market expectations pointing to a different reaction. Yet around $774 million flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over October 22–23, making a recovery in spot demand essential. If buyers step in and absorb selling pressure, BTC could defend $80k.
On-Chain Signals Show Easing Selling Pressure
On-chain data is already supporting this thesis. Recent BTC holders have left the heavy sell zone. In late September, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit; that figure has now cooled to around 70%, potentially easing profit-taking pressure.
Additionally, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium has fallen to a new low since June 2026. The last time the market was at these levels, BTC bottomed out the following day and then rose 50%. On-chain data is also beginning to show signs of fatigue among sellers, adding to the growing narrative of a post-midterm election rally.
Given these signs, Bitcoin is holding up at $80k despite the Fed news and PCE report. If BTC can defend this level, a post-election rally could gain traction.
Final Summary
A hawkish Fed could push Bitcoin toward $75k, while holding $80k could support a recovery. On-chain data shows signs of selling pressure easing, raising hopes for a post-election rally.
