Bitcoin's volatility has declined sharply, reaching levels last observed in summer 2023. According to Glassnode data, the cryptocurrency's 1-month realized volatility fell to 25.2%, a measure that has occurred on only about 5% of trading days since 2015.
James Check, founder of Checkonchain and former analyst at Glassnode, argues that this reduced price volatility represents Bitcoin's strongest bull case. Speaking on the Honest Money Show on October 27, Check characterized the shift as a sign that Bitcoin has transitioned away from speculative trading toward a more mature asset class.
The trend extends beyond short-term measures. Bitcoin's yearly volatility band has narrowed from roughly 55–78% in mid-2022 to approximately 30–52% currently. Recent bear market performance also reflects this pattern: Bitcoin fell about 54% from its October 2025 peak to $58,379 on June 30, compared with 84% and 77% declines in previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022 respectively.
Wall Street Recognition With Caveats
JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 19, projecting annual returns of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years. This forecast exceeds projections for U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
However, JPMorgan excluded Bitcoin from its model portfolios, citing unstable correlations and 55% historical volatility—roughly three times that of stocks and gold. The bank indicated that Bitcoin's allocation within portfolios could increase if volatility continues to decline and correlations stabilize.
Check suggests that even modest adoption could significantly expand Bitcoin's investor base. He estimates that a 2% average allocation across JPMorgan's model portfolios would attract substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Path Forward and Near-Term Obstacles
Glassnode analysts flagged a potential resistance point: long-term Bitcoin holders who purchased between $85,000 and $118,000 may sell into any recovery toward $85,000.
Check expects the current quiet trading phase to persist until Bitcoin clears $100,000. Above that level, he anticipates renewed media attention and speculative buying, potentially ending the period of subdued price action.
