Bitcoin's price closed below $83,000 for the second consecutive week, a key support level needed to confirm a bullish trend. According to popular analyst Benjamin Cowen, this confirms a fake-out and raises concerns that Bitcoin could mirror silver's slow post-2011 collapse, when the precious metal fell 73% over four years.
Was the September Rally a Trap for Bitcoin Buyers?
Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence Expert Council, set a simple test in his latest video: one weekly close below $83,000 would favor bears, and a second would confirm it. Bitcoin closed at $82,042 the prior week and at $80,154 on October 25. It still trades around the same level this week, failing to hold the $83,000 support.
His next target is the bull market support band (BMSB), a pair of 20-week and 21-week moving averages near $72,000 to $76,000. If Bitcoin price drops to this level, it could be a warning sign for further decline. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Ethereum (ETH) already lost their 50-day averages and slid to that band.
Why Silver's Path Keeps Benjamin Cowen Up at Night
Silver offers Cowen the closest precedent. After its 2011 peak near $49, the metal held its lows twice, and its rallies resembled a recovery. One rally even closed above the 50-week moving average in late 2012. Silver still broke down in 2013 and slid to about $14 by 2015.
"What keeps me up at night is more so what if it follows like the silver path… I hope it doesn't and I'm constantly looking for reasons for why it won't," Cowen said.
For Bitcoin, that means a February low, a July low, and perhaps a fourth-quarter low. Rallies would fade until a breakdown arrives in 2027 or 2028. A drop to $60,000 and a rebound would worry him most, turning September's breakout buyers into resistance. A new low below the realized price, the average cost basis of all coins, would instead force real capitulation.
Silver is living through a similar unwind today. The metal closed Friday at $53.83, nearly 56% below its January record, at its lowest level of 2026.
What Must Break Next for the Bear Case to Hold?
Cowen expanded his earlier bearish Q4 roadmap into an 11-step sequence:
- Bitcoin posts a second weekly close below $83,000
- The fake-out is confirmed
- BTC drops to the BMSB
- The Federal Reserve holds rates on Oct. 28
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation comes in hot on Oct. 29
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbs again
- Bitcoin and stocks fall
- Oil reaches $120
- The Fed raises rates in December
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises into the Fed's December meeting
- Long-term yields drop into year-end
If one step fails, he says, the rest becomes doubtful. A weekly close above roughly $84,000 would undercut the thesis.
Is Bitcoin's Downside Already Capped?
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments and a fellow council member, sees a different short-term picture. Bitcoin's put/call ratio, comparing bearish options bets with bullish ones, has hit 1.46.
His chart shows similar spikes near the February and June lows of 2026. In 2022, however, a May spike near $29,000 preceded a slide to about $17,600.
The two views may not conflict. A local floor still allows a test of the support band. Cowen's deeper fear is a silver-style grind lasting years, which no options signal can rule out.
