Bitcoin's [BTC] closely watched "Uptober" seasonal rally has failed to materialise this month, with the largest cryptocurrency posting a negative month-to-date return instead of the gains investors have come to expect in October.
According to a CryptoQuant chart, Bitcoin was down 4.2% month-to-date as of 25 October, compared with an average October return of 18.1% between 2020 and 2025. The move puts BTC on course for a second consecutive negative October, following a 3.8% decline in October 2025.
At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $81,296.02, up 1.9% over the past 24 hours but down 28% over the past year.
Spot demand and sentiment cool
Several factors have combined to weaken Bitcoin's bullish momentum. Spot demand continued to contract, with BTC exchange-traded funds recording a difficult October that included outflows worth $26.10 million, according to SoSo Value data.
Market conditions have also become less supportive on momentum measures. The Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, a decline that suggests several bullish indicators have lost strength. A reading of 60 does not necessarily signal a bearish market, but it points to a less favourable backdrop than earlier in the cycle.
Macro calendar in focus
For conditions to improve, the source analysis argues that macroeconomic developments will need to fall into place. Key items on the calendar include the Federal Reserve's decision on 28 October, upcoming U.S. economic data, and the midterm elections on 3 November — events that could shape investor sentiment in the weeks ahead.
Liquidations and a neutral mood
Uncertainty remains elevated in derivatives markets. CoinGlass data showed 58,857 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, for total liquidations of $174.62 million.
Sentiment gauges, however, are not signalling distress. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 51 at press time, a neutral reading.
The disappointing October follows an unusual September, a month that is historically negative for crypto, when Bitcoin's trend shifted on the back of ETF flows, the Coinbase Premium Index and SOPR, according to a recent AMBCrypto report.
Key figures at a glance
- Bitcoin month-to-date return: -4.2% as of 25 October (CryptoQuant)
- Average October return, 2020-2025: +18.1%
- October 2025 return: -3.8%
- BTC price at press time: $81,296.02, up 1.9% in 24 hours, down 28% over the past year
- BTC ETF outflows in October: $26.10 million (SoSo Value)
- Bull Score Index: 90 to 60 (CryptoQuant)
- Liquidations in 24 hours: 58,857 traders, $174.62 million total (CoinGlass)
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 51, neutral (Alternative)
