Bitcoin's volatility has declined significantly as the asset has matured, according to research from crypto asset manager Grayscale. The digital coin's realized volatility now falls within the range of S&P 500 constituents, with a meaningful number of large-cap stocks exhibiting larger price swings.
Bitcoin's one-year realized volatility has dropped to 43%, down from an average of 64% over the past decade and 81% five years ago. The asset now exhibits lower volatility than 19% of S&P 500 constituents.
Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, attributed the decline to bitcoin's maturation as an asset class. "As the asset has matured, with deeper liquidity, broader institutional participation, and more regulated access venues, its price swings have narrowed considerably from the extremes of its early years," Pandl wrote in a recent note.
Bitcoin's early years were marked by extreme volatility, including drawdowns exceeding 80% within months. Recent data from K33 Research indicated that 2025 was the least volatile year for the asset so far.
The growth of institutional investment has made the asset harder to move. This trend accelerated following the 2024 approval of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which expanded regulated access to the asset.
Bitcoin's price has recovered from a 50% drawdown earlier in 2026 from its October all-time high. The asset recently traded at $82,485, approximately 35% below its record of $126,080.
