Bitcoin has recovered above its 50-week moving average, a technical level that previously signaled bull-market transitions in 2015, 2019, and 2023. The cryptocurrency reclaimed this level near $78,800 in September and subsequently traded above $86,000 in early October, despite market turbulence and liquidations.
Technical Indicators Support Bull-Market Thesis
Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, which compares its current market value with the average price investors paid for their coins, moved above its annual average. As of October 11, the ratio stood near 1.54, above its 365-day average of 1.44. This metric has historically appeared during early stages of bull markets and suggests the longer-term recovery remains intact despite recent selling pressure.
Bear Markets Are Getting Milder
Research from BloFin indicates that Bitcoin's traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle is gradually losing strength. The most recent bear market saw Bitcoin fall approximately 53% from its October 2025 peak of $124,824 to $58,525 in June 2026, compared with declines of 84.5% in 2013–2015, 83.8% in 2017–2018, and 76.7% in 2021–2022.
Bull-market gains have also narrowed. Bitcoin's trough-to-peak returns have declined from roughly 530 times in its earliest cycle to eight times in the most recent one. If June marked the bottom, the latest bear market lasted approximately eight months, shorter than the 12–13 month duration seen historically.
Institutional Ownership Reshaping Market Dynamics
Long-term ownership patterns have shifted significantly. In September, approximately 16.64 million BTC—83% of circulating supply—had remained unmoved for at least 155 days. US spot Bitcoin ETFs held around 1.3 million BTC on October 2, while public companies owned another 1.29 million BTC. Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries controlled approximately 13% of circulating Bitcoin.
However, institutional demand can still weaken sharply during market stress. Last week's $679 million ETF outflow illustrates this volatility, despite the longer-term institutional presence in the market.
What Lies Ahead
Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 on October 11, still above the September moving-average breakout level and well above its June low. For traders, a sustained move below the 50-week moving average would weaken the bullish signal, while a break beneath $58,525 would challenge the proposed cycle bottom. Recent ETF withdrawals underscore that sharper corrections could occur even as longer-term recovery indicators remain positive.
