Bitcoin's price slid 2% over a 24-hour period to trade slightly above $82,423 on Monday, extending recent losses. The cryptocurrency has fallen 3% over the past week and is trading lower for the month so far.
October has historically been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with data from Coinglass showing the asset finished eight of the last 10 Octobers in positive territory. Last year proved to be a notable exception.
Last Year's October Reversal
In October 2025, Bitcoin initially reached an all-time high of $126,080 but entered a bear market after October 10 following what has been described as the largest crypto liquidation event in history. The event was triggered by broader market turmoil, including tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Over $19 billion in digital asset positions were liquidated across markets.
Bitcoin spent most of 2026 in a bear market following that event.
Recent Momentum and Current Outlook
Bitcoin recently completed its best quarter in years and posted gains in September, a month historically challenging for the asset. Despite October's weak start, some analysts have identified potential bottoming signals.
XWIN, a Japanese asset management platform writing for data firm CryptoQuant, noted that signs of a potential bottom are emerging. The firm pointed to easing oil prices and declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, observing that markets priced roughly an 18% chance of a hike on October 12, with Brent crude declining from nearly $110 to around $103.
XWIN added that strong months need not feature uninterrupted gains, as corrections can establish the foundation for subsequent advances.
Technical and Rate Signals
High oil prices have historically pressured Bitcoin's price in the near term, as elevated energy costs raise expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate increases aimed at controlling inflation. However, when the Federal Reserve raised rates last month, Bitcoin's price remained resilient and rose following the announcement.
Other analysts have suggested Bitcoin has exited its bear market, citing the asset's crossing above its 365-day moving average—a technical indicator that has historically marked the beginning of bull markets in previous cycles.
